Next Week's Hot Metal Production Begins to Rebound, Iron Ore Prices Find Support [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Dec 31, 2025 16:14

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Today, iron ore futures continued to be in the doldrums. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 789.5, down 0.57% from the previous trading day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills purchased as needed, with some having minor restocking demand before the holiday. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. In the Shandong region, the transaction price for PB fines was 795-800 yuan, basically stable from yesterday's price; in the Hebei region, the transaction price for PB fines was 810-820 yuan/mt, basically stable from yesterday's price.

According to the SMM survey, on December 31, the blast furnace operating rate of the 242 steel mills tracked by SMM was 85.15%, up 0.32 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal production of the sampled steel mills was 2.3457 million mt, up 2,600 mt MoM. Looking ahead to next week, based on SMM tracking and monitoring, hot metal production of steel mill blast furnaces is expected to show a significant increase. Moreover, throughout January, hot metal production is expected to fluctuate upward. The rebound in hot metal production drives demand growth, providing some support to ore prices, and ore prices are expected to maintain upward momentum after the New Year's Day holiday.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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